Umass Dartmouth Center for Marketing Research Blog

Did Facebook Predict the Polls?

As many citizens awoke this morning, we breathed a sigh of relief that the political battles had finally come to an end. As results poured in of the mid-term elections, winners and losers had to look at what might have affected their campaigns. For many today, Facebook is being analyzed as a top indicator of the races.

More than doubling the 2008 numbers, over 12 million voters clicked the “I voted” button on Facebook yesterday. Even more staggering were the prediction numbers that were reported by Facebook’s “U.S. Politics on Facebook” Page.  As listed by the site, 74% percent of the candidates in Key House races with the most Facebook fans won their races, and 82% of the  Senate races were won by the candidates with more Facebook fans.

If the wasn’t enough to prove the effect Facebook has on current events, they even were predicted that Democrats were going to loose many of their seats during the election. Seventy-eight percent of those Democrats who lost their seats had fewer Facebook fans than their opponents.

Speculation has already begun on how Facebook will effect elections in 2012. For more information on Facebook and the election, visit their Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/us-politics-on-facebook/facebook-fans-help-predict-more-than-70-of-key-races/448981740881.

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Filed under: Social Media

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